Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.4#3
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#7
Pace66.9#185
Improvement+2.5#77

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#17
Improvement+2.7#50

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#2
Improvement-0.2#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.5% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 52.5% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 97.5% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round95.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen76.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight56.5% n/a n/a
Final Four36.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game21.3% n/a n/a
National Champion11.6% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 4   North Carolina L 55-67 53%     0 - 1 +6.6 -10.6 +17.5
  Nov 15, 2011 15   Duke L 69-74 70%     0 - 2 +8.9 -4.2 +13.4
  Nov 18, 2011 276   Texas Southern W 76-41 99%     1 - 2 +24.9 -0.8 +24.2
  Nov 20, 2011 183   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-47 98%     2 - 2 +17.5 -7.7 +24.0
  Nov 23, 2011 154   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-55 97%     3 - 2 +10.7 -5.0 +15.5
  Nov 27, 2011 250   @ Eastern Michigan W 72-40 96%     4 - 2 +30.2 +2.5 +27.1
  Nov 30, 2011 22   Florida St. W 65-49 83%     5 - 2 +25.3 +4.8 +21.8
  Dec 07, 2011 229   Central Connecticut St. W 89-69 98%     6 - 2 +12.9 +18.1 -4.2
  Dec 10, 2011 29   @ Gonzaga W 74-67 68%     7 - 2 +21.5 +9.1 +12.4
  Dec 17, 2011 126   Bowling Green W 74-60 96%     8 - 2 +13.4 +1.5 +11.8
  Dec 19, 2011 283   UMKC W 89-54 99%     9 - 2 +24.5 +12.4 +13.2
  Dec 22, 2011 81   Lehigh W 90-81 93%     10 - 2 +11.7 +9.5 +1.4
  Dec 28, 2011 8   Indiana W 80-65 76%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +26.9 +12.9 +14.8
  Dec 31, 2011 142   @ Nebraska W 68-55 90%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +18.4 +4.6 +15.1
  Jan 03, 2012 12   @ Wisconsin W 63-60 OT 55%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +21.1 +4.8 +16.5
  Jan 10, 2012 91   Iowa W 95-61 94%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +36.0 +14.6 +19.4
  Jan 14, 2012 58   @ Northwestern L 74-81 78%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +4.3 +8.6 -4.9
  Jan 17, 2012 23   @ Michigan L 59-60 63%     14 - 4 4 - 2 +14.9 +4.6 +10.0
  Jan 21, 2012 30   Purdue W 83-58 86%     15 - 4 5 - 2 +32.6 +13.6 +20.1
  Jan 25, 2012 56   Minnesota W 68-52 91%     16 - 4 6 - 2 +20.7 +8.7 +14.5
  Jan 31, 2012 77   @ Illinois L 41-42 81%     16 - 5 6 - 3 +9.0 -17.3 +26.2
  Feb 05, 2012 23   Michigan W 64-54 83%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +19.1 +4.9 +15.9
  Feb 08, 2012 128   Penn St. W 77-57 96%     18 - 5 8 - 3 +19.2 +7.2 +12.6
  Feb 11, 2012 2   @ Ohio St. W 58-48 35%     19 - 5 9 - 3 +33.4 +0.2 +33.9
  Feb 16, 2012 12   Wisconsin W 69-55 78%     20 - 5 10 - 3 +25.3 +15.1 +12.6
  Feb 19, 2012 30   @ Purdue W 76-62 68%     21 - 5 11 - 3 +28.5 +9.2 +19.7
  Feb 22, 2012 56   @ Minnesota W 66-61 77%     22 - 5 12 - 3 +16.5 +8.9 +8.3
  Feb 25, 2012 142   Nebraska W 62-34 96%     23 - 5 13 - 3 +26.6 +1.4 +31.1
  Feb 28, 2012 8   @ Indiana L 55-70 53%     23 - 6 13 - 4 +3.7 -2.5 +3.6
  Mar 04, 2012 2   Ohio St. L 70-72 61%     23 - 7 13 - 5 +14.6 +2.8 +11.9
  Mar 09, 2012 91   Iowa W 92-75 90%     24 - 7 +22.4 +19.7 +2.9
  Mar 10, 2012 12   Wisconsin W 65-52 68%     25 - 7 +27.7 +12.7 +17.3
  Mar 11, 2012 2   Ohio St. W 68-64 48%     26 - 7 +24.0 +12.2 +12.2
Projected Record 26.0 - 7.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.5 52.5 44.9 2.5 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.5 52.5 44.9 2.5 0.0